🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.