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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."